Decision-making with incomplete information
For team leads, coordinators, analysts and anyone who has to recommend or make a decision before all the facts are in: choosing a supplier, changing opening hours, committing to a date, buying equipment. Prerequisite: 'Critical thinking at work: evaluating claims, evidence and sources' (checking whether evidence is good enough). You'll separate what's known from what's assumed and what's unknown, decide whether to act now or gather more information, test the choice with simple scenarios and a break-even or switching value, communicate uncertainty honestly with ranges and the caveats that matter, and record the decision with a review date and triggers. The methods are drawn from UK government analysis guidance (the AQuA Book, the cross-government Uncertainty Toolkit and HM Treasury's Green Book), simplified for everyday decisions; they're good practice, not a formula that removes judgement. For who decides and how to involve people, see 'Making and recording team decisions'. Your organisation's decision rights, approval limits and risk appetite apply.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Length
- About 90 minutes
- Contents
- 5 lessons · final exam
- Status
- Published · updated 10 Oct 2026
Skills you'll practise
- Separate what is known, what is assumed and what is unknown in a decision, and record the assumptions in a log
- Decide whether to act now or gather more information, using whether new information would change the decision, the cost of waiting and how reversible the choice is
- Test a decision with simple scenarios and a break-even or switching value
- Communicate uncertainty with ranges, defined likelihood words and the two or three caveats that matter most
- Record the decision with its assumptions, a review date and the signals that would trigger a rethink
Course outline
- 1.Separating what is known, assumed and unknown, and keeping an assumptions logLesson · 18 min
- 2.Deciding whether to act now or gather more informationLesson · 18 min
- 3.Testing a decision with scenarios and a break-even or switching valueLesson · 20 min
- 4.Communicating uncertainty with ranges, defined likelihood words and the caveats that matter mostLesson · 16 min
- 5.Recording the decision with assumptions, a review date and triggersLesson · 12 min
- 6.Decision-making with incomplete information: knowledge checkKnowledge check · 13 questions
- 7.Decision-making with incomplete information: practical exerciseKnowledge check · 1 question
- 8.Final exam10 questions · passing it completes the course, so people who already know the material can test out
Sources it draws on
The lessons and questions are written from these references, so learners can go back to the original.
- HM Treasury / Government Analysis Function: The AQuA Book (guidance on producing quality analysis for government), 2025 edition
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government (cross-government group): home page
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government, chapter 2: Jointly agreeing how uncertainty should be used
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government, chapter 3: Defining and identifying uncertainty
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government, chapter 5: Understanding and measuring uncertainty
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government, chapter 6: Presenting and communicating uncertainty
- HM Treasury: The Green Book (2026): appraisal and evaluation in central government (optimism bias, sensitivity analysis, switching values, scenario analysis, real options)
See it with your own jobs and topics
Tell us about your team and we'll walk you through setup, from choosing jobs to your first skills check.