Cash flow forecasting for a small business: 13-week rolling forecast and scenarios
For bookkeepers, office managers, finance assistants and owner-managers who keep a small business's short-term cash forecast. Prerequisite: 'Cash flow forecasting and working capital' (weekly closing balances, collection patterns, profit versus cash). This course goes further: a 13-week direct forecast that separates operating from financing flows, rolling it forward every week with actuals and variance explanations, base, downside and upside scenarios with headroom against a minimum buffer and overdraft limit, switching values for the riskiest assumption, and choosing and escalating actions before a shortfall. Examples are mainly UK (GOV.UK, HMRC and Invest Northern Ireland guidance) with US notes (SBA and IRS); payment terms, tax dates and finance options differ by jurisdiction and contract. This course does not grant an accounting qualification. It is not financial or tax advice and not legal advice: your accountant, lender and your organisation's procedures govern.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Length
- About 95 minutes
- Contents
- 5 lessons · final exam
- Status
- Published · updated 10 Oct 2026
Skills you'll practise
- Build a 13-week direct cash forecast that separates operating receipts and payments from financing flows
- Roll the forecast forward each week, replacing the past week with actuals and explaining the main variances
- Build base, downside and upside scenarios from stated assumptions, and calculate headroom against a minimum buffer and an overdraft limit
- Calculate a switching value for a key assumption, such as how late a large customer can pay before a limit is breached
- Choose actions for a forecast shortfall and escalate early, using the forecast as evidence
Course outline
- 1.Building a 13-week direct cash forecast that separates operating and financing flowsLesson · 20 min
- 2.Rolling the forecast forward each week and explaining variancesLesson · 18 min
- 3.Building scenarios and calculating headroom against a buffer and an overdraft limitLesson · 18 min
- 4.Calculating a switching value for a key assumptionLesson · 16 min
- 5.Choosing actions for a shortfall and escalating early with the forecastLesson · 15 min
- 6.Cash flow forecasting for a small business: 13-week rolling forecast and scenarios: knowledge checkKnowledge check · 13 questions
- 7.Cash flow forecasting for a small business: 13-week rolling forecast and scenarios: practical exerciseKnowledge check · 1 question
- 8.Final exam10 questions · passing it completes the course, so people who already know the material can test out
Sources it draws on
The lessons and questions are written from these references, so learners can go back to the original.
- nibusinessinfo.co.uk (Invest Northern Ireland): Cashflow forecast examples
- nibusinessinfo.co.uk (Invest Northern Ireland): Advantages of using a cashflow forecast
- nibusinessinfo.co.uk (Invest Northern Ireland): Cashflow management techniques
- nibusinessinfo.co.uk (Invest Northern Ireland): Steps to avoid cashflow problems in your business
- GOV.UK: Late commercial payments: charging interest and debt recovery (UK)
- GOV.UK: If you cannot pay your tax bill on time (HMRC payment plans, UK)
- U.S. Small Business Administration: Write your business plan (financial projections, US)
- U.S. Small Business Administration: Manage your finances (cash and accrual methods, US)
- IRS Publication 15 (Circular E), Employer's Tax Guide: deposit schedules (US)
- HM Treasury: The Green Book (2026): optimism bias, sensitivity analysis, switching values and scenario analysis
- Uncertainty Toolkit for Analysts in Government, chapter 5: Understanding and measuring uncertainty (scenarios, break-even analysis)
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